Sports bets can be quite profitable if an individual know the tricks often the “smart money” bettors employ to consistently make money. Most significant secrets that smart money bettors use can be knowing when NOT to bet.
Here’s a ideal example of this. My spouse and i analyzed this Western world Va vs. Louisville video game, and concluded the fact that West Florida had typically the edge in the match. Nonetheless I actually also recognized that there are a lot of random and unpredictable factors, and recommended to a clients that they perform not wager on this particular game. Here is the analysis I released prior to the game:
West Florida or Louisville
This game offers all the indicators of being one associated with the very best games involving the year, with equally teams coming into the adventure 7-0. It’s #3 rated West Virginia compared to. #5 ranked Louisville, the two having high-scoring offenses and stingy defenses. Last year’s sport was a classic, using Western world Virginia coming rear from being down large in the fourth 1 fourth to winning around overtime.
So what’s the sport appearance like this year?
If this sport were turning into played with a natural field, West Va might probably be a 4-6 position favorite. Since this game is within Louisville, WVU is a 1-point underdog. Let’s see if can make sense…
West Virginia will be on an unprecedented throw. They will haven’t lost considering that Oct. 1, 2005, heading 14-0 since they dropped to Florida Tech. Through the last two seasons they’re 13-5 ATS likewise. They’re also 7-2 OBTAIN THE in their last being unfaithful activities overall, and 8-2 OBTAIN THE in their previous 10 ROUTE games.
These kind of are some very amazing stats that tilt typically the scales in favor regarding WVU with regard to tonight’s online game. Plus, typically the extra bonus offer is that WVU can be GETTING +1 point. This could not look like very much, but in a close up match-up similar to this, that spare point can make the change between the push and even a loss.
But you may be wondering what concerning Louisville?
Louisville’s stats may be almost as good like WVU’s -except when the idea comes to Louisville in the point spread. In their own previous 10 games, Louisville is simply 4-6 ATS. That will said, Louisville is in spite of everything 7-3 ATS within their last 10 home games.
Plus if you’re leaning in the direction of WVU, here’s a terrifying stat… Louisville hasn’t dropped in your own home since January 17, 2003! During this recent run Louisville is averaging 49. five points every game in your house, while hitting only quitting 15. seven points each game in home. In case you failed to do the math concepts, that means considering their own last home damage they have already averaged beating his or her opponents by way of about 34 points per game.
Even greater impressive, the average line in these games has only also been 21 points. That method Louisville has beaten the particular spread, on average, by means of 13 factors per online game at home considering that 2003.
Wow… how can a person go against that?
Here’s precisely how…
Nearly all of those stats have been developed during the 2006 season. This season, 2006, Louisville has been closer to very good than great. They are yet to acquired recent games that has they have already only scored twenty eight, twenty-three, 24 points. These types of games weren’t against Oh Stycken. or Michigan. They ended up against Cincinnati, Syracuse, and even Kansas St.
The bottom line is of which this is still a close video game to call. Although the things i look to get is West Virginia’s defense to carry the day time. If Cincinnati, Syracuse, and Kansas St. can all of hold Louisville under thirty points, then there’s virtually no purpose to think WVU can’t have one to the low to middle 20’s. My honest professional recommendation can be to lay off this particular game and not guarantee at all. There usually are better games this weekend with more clear-cut benefits.
The final score of the game was Louisville 46, West Va 34. Lousiville won because West Va had 6 fumbles plus allowed Lousiville to come back the punt for a new TD. The results was the fact that West Virginia’s advantage wasn’t so big they could very well still win after doing so many mistakes. By way of not betting on that game, people serious with regards to wagering saved money these people can offer better work with on upcoming games.